Insights category - Markets economy
Markets & economy

A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets

Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial conditions tighten. The MSCI Emerging Market Index is now 22% off its peak and the FTSE/JSE All Share Index fell 6% over the quarter when measured in US dollars.

This has impacted both local and the offshore equities in the Fund. Investors are currently focused on the risks as opposed to the upside in emerging markets – this is understandable. As contrarians, we are looking for opportunities where we believe intrinsic value has not been impaired to the same extent as the price has fallen.

Investors in emerging markets have to balance the upside of above-average long-term potential growth and lower levels of competition with the risks of less developed and market-friendly government institutions and regulators.

Three shares have recently been affected by regulation, causing investors to question the value of some of their business units operating in emerging and frontier economies:

Naspers had a volatile quarter impacted by negative sentiment towards emerging markets and potential changes in regulation in China, which could affect Chinese technology company Tencent (Naspers holds 31% of the company). Tencent’s gaming business, which generates a significant portion of its profit, suffered from a delay in official approval to monetise new games. The government also issued statements implying that many Chinese, in particular youth, may be spending too much time gaming. While the process still needs to be completed, and indeed may even be positive for Tencent, we believe the implied valuation for Tencent when bought through Naspers is attractive. Naspers remains the Fund’s largest position.

MTN announced claims by the Nigerian government of wrongdoing involving the repatriation of cash from Nigeria as well as underpayment of tax. While MTN denies the allegations, and the amounts appear unbelievably large (approximately US$10bn), it is difficult to fight a government (especially one short of US dollars) which ultimately controls your licence to operate in their country. The value of the Nigerian business has long been a concern of ours, but with the change in price, we are taking a closer look.

Glencore’s share price has also fallen due to regulatory issues involving its copper operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition to having to negotiate with the local mining regulator, Glencore faces a potential fine from the US Department of Justice for dealing with a person on their sanctions list. Taking the above into account, we believe the share price has fallen more than the intrinsic value. We like the profile of Glencore’s commodity basket and while it does operate in riskier jurisdictions, the discount relative to the other major diversified miners is large. Glencore has been one of the Fund’s largest purchases.

Investors in emerging and frontier markets have been reminded 1) Of the associated risks that come with the upside and 2) That this is particularly the case in countries with unbalanced economies (think Turkey). Dislocations will invariably present opportunities to long-term investors who are willing to do the work. It is also a timely reminder that South Africa must get its house in order to reduce our vulnerability in a world with tighter financial conditions.

Over the quarter, the Fund lightened its position in Sasol and purchased Glencore and Naspers.

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