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Articles tagged as "Economy"

2022 Budget speech update

By Komil Gordhan on 25 Feb 2022

Finance Minister Ipumbu Shiimi, MP delivered his Budget speech on Thursday, 24 February 2022. He noted that there is an urgent need to reignite economic...

Preparing for more uncertainty and volatility

By Duncan Artus on 31 Jan 2022

A look back over the last two years reveals how difficult forecasting is. Even with perfect foresight of the pandemic context, one would not have been able t...

The transition into the post-pandemic world

By Sandy McGregor on 27 Jan 2022

It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...

It’s the price you pay that matters

By Rory Kutisker-Jacobson on 21 Oct 2021

As investors we shouldn’t pretend we operate in a vacuum that is nicely insulated from the prevailing macroeconomic and political trends. However, it is...

Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation

By Sandy McGregor on 15 Oct 2021

With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...

Inflation returns

By Sandy McGregor on 26 Jul 2021

Prices are on the up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, will deflationary conditions resume as global economic conditions normalise or is...

Global recovery underway

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Apr 2021

The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...

2021 Budget speech update

By Carrie Norden on 25 Feb 2021

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni delivered the Budget speech on Wednesday, 24 February. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Budget was more...

The state of the economy

By Sandy McGregor and Vuyo Nogantshi on 10 Feb 2021

In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...

Investment update: Taking advantage of disparities in the market

By Duncan Artus on 21 Jan 2021

One of the key preconditions for successful active management is the level of disparity in the markets. Duncan Artus discusses this in our first video and...

The impact of COVID-19's second wave

By Sandy McGregor on 12 Jan 2021

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the global recovery following the severe economic contraction experienced during the second quarter ...

Orbis: The power of perspective

By Povilas Dapkevicius on 09 Nov 2020

It is easy to get caught up in the noise of short-term events like politics. What we have learned over the past 30 years is that a long-term view often revea...

Are you sitting on savings you could be investing?

By Nomi Bodlani on 30 Oct 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people's finances in very different ways. While it has highlighted the need for emergency savings as a buffer against toug...

The dangers of printing money

By Sandy McGregor on 16 Oct 2020

Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...

How is the market up?

By Rob Perrone on 11 Sep 2020

After the worst five-week crash ever, global stock markets have recovered all of their losses in just five months, with the MSCI World Index setting a new...

Orbis: Our job is to be uncomfortable

By Brett Moshal on 03 Aug 2020

Our job at Allan Gray and Orbis is to be uncomfortable and to sweat our clients’ capital. Ultimately what we focus on is the risk of capital loss - and that...

Equity Fund update: In pursuit of potential

By Duncan Artus on 03 Aug 2020

The most important determinant of investment success is the price you pay for an asset, and valuations for many quality companies are the cheapest they have...

COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update

By Duncan Artus on 01 Jun 2020

During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...

Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Investing beyond COVID-19

By Tamryn Lamb on 26 May 2020

While financial market volatility as a result of COVID-19 is expected to continue over the short term, the investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis are focus...

Investing during lockdown and beyond

By Duncan Artus on 25 May 2020

Sometimes in investing, the best thing to do is nothing. In a presentation to advisers and clients via Zoom webinar, Duncan Artus examined the levels and...

Perspectives and portfolio positioning amid COVID-19

By Andrew Lapping on 08 May 2020

The world as we know it has changed dramatically over the last two months, with the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown strategies causing extreme volatility on t...

The world after the COVID-19 pandemic

By Sandy McGregor on 23 Apr 2020

We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...

Positioning our portfolios for growth beyond COVID-19

By Andrew Lapping on 23 Apr 2020

The speed at which the financial market swings from despair to elation is astounding. The past few months have seen no shortage of mood swings as investors...

COVID-19: Looking to history to understand potential outcomes

By Stephan Bernard on 09 Apr 2020

With much of the world in lockdown, one wonders whether it is appropriate to draw on past analogies in thinking about what lies ahead. However, every prior...

COVID-19: Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers

By Tamryn Lamb on 08 Apr 2020

With many countries in lockdown, uncertainty prevails. Against this backdrop, many clients are asking for our views on the economic impact, an update on our...

Impact of Moody's downgrade

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Mar 2020

As a consequence of the decision by Moody’s to lower South Africa’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3, all three leading rating agencies now rate South African...

COVID-19: We remain open for you during the lockdown

By Tamryn Lamb on 25 Mar 2020

As we enter into lockdown, Tamryn Lamb, head of retail distribution, reassures investors that we are open during this most unsettling time. She also provides...

COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity

By Duncan Artus on 25 Mar 2020

We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...

Coronavirus: Taking stock of the state of the markets

By Andrew Lapping on 19 Mar 2020

The world is changing extremely fast. The global business shutdown is unlike anything seen outside wartime. It is impossible to know the length or depth of t...

How could a ratings downgrade affect investors?

By Sehrish Khan on 13 Feb 2020

Inundated with reports of failing state-owned enterprises and spiralling government debt, investors are understandably concerned ahead of South Africa’s 2020...

Inflation

By Sandy McGregor on 29 Jan 2020

Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...

Should you invest in bonds?

By Londa Nxumalo on 29 Jan 2020

The recent performance of South African bonds – which have outperformed cash and equities over three and five years – has prompted investors to ask whether...

An age of anxiety

By Sandy McGregor on 22 Oct 2019

We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...

South African investors need to fall out of love with equities

By Kevin Lings on 30 Jul 2019

South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...

Is it time for equity investors to party like it’s 2002?

By Duncan Artus on 30 Jul 2019

Not quite, says Duncan Artus.

Trade wars

By Sandy McGregor on 29 Jul 2019

In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...

Global business conditions deteriorate

By Sandy McGregor on 12 Jul 2019

Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...

Valuations matter

By Andrew Lapping on 11 Jun 2019

Uncertainty abounds at present. Equity returns for the past few years have been underwhelming, political upheaval locally and internationally is causing wave...

Finding value in frontier African markets

By Nick Ndiritu on 29 Apr 2019

Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...

Global slowdown continues to take its toll

By Sandy McGregor on 26 Apr 2019

The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...

How you can influence your investment outcomes

By Lettie Mzwinila on 16 Apr 2019

After an undeniably tough 2018, the local market staged a turnaround during the first quarter. But the atmosphere in the country is blowing hot and cold: As...

South Africa's fiscal dilemma

By Sandy McGregor on 25 Jan 2019

Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...

Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure

By Sandy McGregor on 05 Oct 2018

Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...

How to thrive in choppy markets

By Andrew Lapping on 23 Aug 2018

This year has been characterised by increased volatility and concern about the global risks – from trade disputes to inflation. After a strong start to the...

Increasing policy uncertainty

By Sandy McGregor on 20 Jul 2018

With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...

SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest

By Kevin Lings on 18 Jul 2018

South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...

Approaching a tipping point?

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2018

After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...

The value of bitcoin

By Jacques Plaut on 24 Oct 2017

The total market value of all bitcoins is US$80bn, which is more than the value of Richemont and triple the value of Anglo American. It is the topic on which...

Global jitters: Avoid safe havens, opportunity in overlooked sectors

By Dan Brocklebank on 15 Sep 2017

The uncertain global political and economic backdrop created by unexpected recent shocks has spooked investors. However fear, particularly when spurred by...

Equity Fund update: Volatility presents opportunity

By Ruan Stander on 25 Jul 2016

The economic outlook deteriorated during the second quarter, exacerbated by the British referendum. Although the market’s perception of near-term headwinds m...

Gold: A history of its price

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Jun 2016

Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...

Annual report from the outgoing Chief Investment Officer

By Ian Liddle on 01 Mar 2016

Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2015. These are Ian Liddle’s final Annual...

China's Malthusian challenge

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Mar 2011

Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...

Deflation

By Sandy McGregor on 30 Sep 2010

It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...

The triumph of the markets

By Sandy McGregor on 31 Dec 2009

It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...

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